Players in the Chen Guangcheng Incident

Many articles and web posts were written about the Chen Guangcheng incident.  Many of these see it as a negotiation between the PRC authorities and the US government.  Not too many dealt with the third party in this event, Chen Guangcheng.

These negotiations were negotiations among three parties: PRC government, the US government, and Chen.

The PRC government had the strongest hand in these negotiations.

In this case, while Chen is still on PRC territories, all parties are subject to all the PRC government action and limitation.  The PRC government holds all the cards, except forcing Chen to leave the US Embassy.  PRC government, if willing, can even organize an armed assault of the US Embassy to "liberate" Chen from the "hostage taking" of the US government (And I am sure that is how it will be portraited by the PRC government if they did it.).  And if Chen stays in PRC, the PRC government can unilaterally decide where he is going, where his family is going, under what condition (free ?, imprisoned ? under house arrest ? tortured ? starved ? unemployed ? exiled ? confined to an area or city ? no visitors ? no communication ? and for sure, under heavy surveillance, close supervision, and limited movement).  Even if Chen and US government decide to fly him to the US,  PRC government's approval is still required to transport him from the Embassy to the plane.

Chen is the second most powerful negotiator.  Chen can want to stay in PRC or go to the US.  It was all up to him until he left the Embassy.  All of these are, of course, still up to the agreement of the PRC government.  But US government has no say in how he decided, no matter what US government want, or what is convenient to the US.

The US government is the weakest party of these negotiations.  All actions by the US government are subject to the approval of Chen and the PRC government.  Even if the US government decide to allow Chen to stay in the US Embassy, US is still subjected to Chen's agreement, or it is a crime (kidnapping, illegal confinement).  When Chen leaves the US Embassy, all movement and action of the US government and Chen are subjected to PRC government approval and assistance.  The simple case that US Embassy personnel wasn't able to visit Chen while he was in hospital is a very revealing event of the limitation of US government action.

I would say US government was only a proxy working on behalf of Chen.  What Chen wanted dictates what US government could do.

It is quite understandable that Chen may have decided (before he left the Embassy) for his family and himself to stay in China to continue his work, and realizing that his influence in China would drastically reduce if he leaves China, the US government can do nothing to send him to the US except telling Chen about the real world.  Many previous examples of exiled Chinese dissidents told him that.  He seemed to have the impression that while he and his family is under the "protection" of the PRC Central, he and his family will be safe and well treated.  I am not going to comment on the reason behind this impression, as he is the only one who can value his life, his family, his freedom and his work.  How he understands the PRC government is also a factor in figuring out whether what he wanted was realistic.  And he seems to have an unrealistic idea of what the US can do in PRC.

When he decided that he wanted to stay in PRC, whether for a limited period of time or for good, whether he wanted to study or do anything else,  there was nothing the US government could do except let him leave the US Embassy when he wanted to.  Whether US will provide an escort or transportation or whatever will have no influence in the outcome - everything was in the hands of the PRC government.  All events will play out the way the PRC government wants.

When Chen changed his mind to want to go to the US, it is all to late - he has already left the US Embassy.  At that time, US government can only do one thing - issue him a visa.  Whether he goes to any university or anywhere in the US is immaterial. These can be arranged later, or not at all.  But everything else are still subject to the wishes of the PRC government.

The US government may or may not have abandoned Chen after he decided to stay in PRC.  But that is immaterial for what happened after he left the Embassy.  PRC government decided what happened, and were totally out of the hands of US.  US personnel were not even allowed to visit Chen in the hospital. And when Chen and family were starving in the hospital, US government can only call the hospital and begged for food for the Chens.  If the hospital refused to send food, there was nothing the US could do.