明鏡新聞網: 放陳光誠赴美，溫家寶最先拍板

明鏡新聞網: 放陳光誠赴美，溫家寶最先拍板:

Now I figured out why Chen decline to leave PRC and then changed his mind.  If he planned all these, he is one smart cookie.

He is most concerned about the safety of his family, relatives and friends.  What had happened is probably the best he can hoped for regarding their safety.

If he claimed he wanted to leave PRC when he first arrived at the US Embassy, it would set up major lost of face scenario for PRC.  This would have made PRC to make the situation as tough for US and Chen as possible, like torturing his family, relatives and friends, and keep Chen cooped up in the US Embassy for years if not decades, without seeing his family, and to cut off all communication between him and his family.

So by claiming his wish to stay in PRC, it gave PRC the maneuvering room to make a face saving move to get rid of a trouble maker, calm down the international community, and make it look like PRC was in charge.

I can see it as a negotiation of Chen through the US with PRC now.  US was totally reacting to events with not much room to affect events.  US would loose if US didn't do what Chen wanted, like going to the hospital, talked to his friends and supporters and friends using cell phone, etc.

His continuing claim of going back to PRC will make PRC authorities a bit more comfortable about the situation and may ease on torturing Chen's friends and relatives.  We will have to monitor the situation to see whether PRC has the confidence to let up the torture.

I doubt Chen will ever seek political asylum in the US for fear of endangering his friends and relatives at risk in PRC.  He may secretly seek permanent residency in US much later.

But I would hope Prof. Cohen step back from the public and resume his mentoring in earnest.  Let someone else play PR for Chen for now.  A US lawyer with no ties to Chinese dissidents in US would be best.